via Zoom

Meeting ID: 610 3101 8576

Anyone is welcomed to join the seminar but please adhere to the hosts instructions and understand you can be removed if you disturb the seminar.


Title: Non-Random Exposure to Exogenous Shocks: Theory and Applications, with Peter Hull

We develop new tools for causal inference in settings where exogenous shocks affect the treatment status of multiple observations jointly, to different extents. In these settings researchers may construct treatments or instruments that
combine the shocks with predetermined measures of shock exposure. Examples include measures of spillovers in social and transportation networks, simulated eligibility instruments, and shift-share instruments. We show that leveraging
the exogeneity of shocks for identification generally requires a simple but nonstandard recentering, derived from the specification of counterfactual shocks that might as well have been realized. We further show how specification of counterfactual shocks can be used for finite-sample inference and specification tests, and we characterize the recentered instruments that are asymptotically efficient. We use this framework to estimate the employment effects of Chinese
market access growth due to high-speed rail construction and the insurance coverage effects of expanded Medicaid eligibility.


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